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| New energy vehicle production and marketing decline |
| From the big subsidies of the state to the accelerated decline of subsidies now, the new energy vehicle industry has gone out of the roller coaster market. According to the new regulation of subsidy, the subsidy policy will be completely withdrawn after 2020, and the new energy vehicle "weaning" will enter the countdown. At the moment, with the announcement of the relevant listed companies' performance bulletin, what kind of report cards have been handed out by the new energy vehicle related enterprises? In July 29th, in the first half of the year, the performance express of half year in 2018 was disclosed. The business income was 1 billion 713 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 11.15%, net profit of 131 million yuan, and 13.26% of the year. As for the reasons for the decline, the express showed that the price of six fluoro phosphoric acid decreased to a certain extent, the profitability of the product decreased and the gross interest rate decreased. As a key link in the upstream of the industrial chain, the performance change of multi-fluorine is the microcosm of the evolution of the whole new energy automobile industry chain. Production and sales data in June showed a downward trend compared with the high growth rate. In July 2018, the automobile production and marketing data of 2018 in June issued by the China Auto Industry Association showed that the production and marketing of new energy vehicles in June were 86 thousand and 84 thousand respectively, and 31.7% and 42.9% respectively. From January to June, production and sales of 413,000 new energy vehicles and 412,000 vehicles respectively increased by 94.9% and 111.5% year-on-year, and continued to grow at a high speed. Ring to see, new energy vehicle production and sales showed a downward trend. The China auto industry association data showed that in June, the production of new energy passenger vehicles was 73 thousand, the ring fell by 4.4%, the commercial vehicle output was 12 thousand, and the ring fell by 35.2%. New energy vehicle production and sales increased rapidly in June compared with the same period last year, but the ring-to-ring ratio has declined. What signals are revealed by the divergence of data trends? The reasons behind the divergence of data in the new energy automotive industry seem to point to one thing: subsidise. 2018 the new subsidy regulations have implemented the overall decline 30%~40% In February 13th, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of science and technology, the development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued the notice on the adjustment and improvement of the fiscal subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as "the notice"). The notice pointed out that the subsidy for the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles should be adjusted according to the change of cost and so on. Standard, reduce the subsidy standard of new energy bus and new energy special vehicle reasonably. Considering the stability of the market and other factors, the subsidy policy established a transition period from February 12, 2008 to June 11, 2018. In the transition period, the new energy passenger car and passenger car will be 0.7 times the subsidy according to the corresponding standard of the Ministry of science and technology of Ministry of science and technology of the Ministry of science and technology of the Ministry of science and technology of the Ministry of science and technology on the adjustment of the policy of the promotion and application of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles. The subsidy of new energy trucks and special cars is 0.4 times, the subsidy standard of fuel cell car is not Change. The new subsidy policy has changed considerably in terms of endurance requirements and subsidies. The requirement of the continuation is more detailed and the overall transfer to higher specifications, the amount of subsidies is reduced greatly, the range of different types of models is different, and the overall decline is 30%~40%. Profit driven blowout for new energy vehicles in May The introduction of new subsidies will undoubtedly have a profound impact on vehicle manufacturers and power battery manufacturers. After the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the amount of subsidies for pure electric passenger vehicles with a duration of less than 300 kilometers has been reduced, and the subsidies for vehicles with a duration of less than 150 kilometers have been cancelled. For the vehicle manufacturers and power - battery enterprises to produce the above models, the subsidy decline means a decline in profits, so it is urgent to digest inventory before the end of the transition period, and become the top priority of the above vehicle manufacturers and the power battery enterprises. As a result, driven by interests, the new energy vehicles in the transition period "rush to install the tide." It is understood that the "tide of loading" reached its peak in May. According to the data from the National Joint Committee on Passenger Car Market Information, the retail sales of 92,000 new energy passenger cars in May increased by 34.3% compared with the previous year, by 159.1%. 1~5 retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 275 thousand units, an increase of 147% over the same period last year. Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle retail sales growth rate of only 0.5% in May, the new energy vehicle has become the core power to drive the growth of the car market. The data disclosed by listed companies also support the positive changes brought by "rush to install the tide". Yutong, for example, completed 7,741 passenger cars in May, up 104.9% year-on-year and 152.7% year-on-year, with new energy buses contributing a major share. Guoxin Securities Research Report showed that Yutong passenger car sales of new energy passenger cars in May are estimated to be about 5000, up 1566.67% and 583.06%, to achieve blowout growth. Subsidies to accelerate the recession industry is experiencing "ebb tide" The year 2018 is destined to be a year of accelerated recession of subsidies for new energy vehicles, which puts the new energy vehicle companies in a life-and-death test, and the industry is experiencing a "wave of sand". It is understood that with the normalization of the subsidy retreat, the policy preferences of flood irrigation have gradually subsided, and the new energy automobile enterprises will increase the R & D investment, improve the technical level, and phase out some small and medium-sized car enterprises with low technical level and no standard products. In May of this year, the Ministry of industry and information issued the public notice of the preliminary review of the subsidy funds for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2017 and the previous year, and finally confirmed that the new energy automobile enterprises in 2016 and 2017 should be paid about 18 billion 972 million yuan in total, involving more than 10 billion yuan in 2016 and 2017. The corresponding reduction to about 6 billion 700 million yuan, of which Yutong Bus, BYD, an Kai bus, Jianghuai Automobile, Futian Automobile and other listed car enterprises in the past two years to support the former.
In addition, according to the national monitoring platform caliber of new energy vehicles, since 2016, China has added more than 200 new energy vehicle enterprises. At the same time, there were more than 60 bankruptcies due to the steep decline of subsidies in 2017. Subsidies accelerate the decline, promote the rapid liquidation of low-end capacity, industry subsidies to the leading enterprise concentration, the effect of survival of the fittest is very obvious. |
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